Friday, March 27, 2009

Frame Effects

When you step up to first frame in the first game, you have the benefit of having just thrown two to four frames of practice bowling. You also want to get off to a good start. The pressure you feel, if you feel it, is like standing on the first tee wanting to blast one down the fairway. In a tight game in the 10th, you want to turkey out. For the central eight frames, the mentality is different. It is one of maintenance or recovery. You want to keep the streak alive, put up a big number on that mark, or redeem that frame you just left open. Different frames have different feels. Early in the game, there is a sense of hopefulness. Late in the game, there is the sense of finishing strongly. So, does the performance of bowlers vary by frame? That is subject of this post.

In the first ever BM Report, I looked at an interesting pattern in frame scores. On December 2, 2008, we peaked in the 2nd frame, and then slowly dipped to the 5th. A 2nd peak was present in the 6th frame and slowly fell through the 10th. Is this the way our team bowls? In our current database, we have frames score for 204 games for six bowlers, a total of 2,040 frames. Shown below is the average score by frame for our team. In brief, there are no frame effects. Our mean frame scores are remarkably consistent ranging between 13.95 per bowler in the 1st to 14.90 in the 2nd. While there are differences, they are not statistically significant. We bowl, as a team, an average of 14.59 pins per frame, or an average score of 146 per bowler per game. As a team, we bowl equivalently whether it is the 1st frame, the 10th, or anything in between.

While this is true for the team, is it also true for individual bowlers? The graph below shows the average frame score for the four Movements. While differences between bowlers are clearly evident, within any given bowler, they are less so. Johnebob has the highest average frame score for any bowler with a 17.8 for the 10th. In fact, if you look at Johnny’s scores it looks like he really catches fire in frames 8 through 10, but in fact, there are no significant differences between frames for John, and this is true for all of us.In short, frame seems to have no effect on bowling scores for our team.

Whether this is true for all bowlers, I don’t know. For us, it is steady as she goes.

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