Monday, February 22, 2010

The Odds

Tonight, we bowl in the Laramie City Championships. The most likely outcome is that we donate $84 to Cody Caldwell, Brett Baker, Adam Whathisname, and the rest of the Gem City's best. In fact, our chances of placing are fairly low, but not impossible. Our top ten finish in the handicapped division last year was impressive and our not bottom finish in the scratch division was also well earned.

So, here's how I see it. I have no idea how many pins took the handicapped division last year. According to what I wrote about midway through the competition last year, the top performance was a 2,916. We came in at 2,859. This year's tournament uses an 80% of 240 handicap. This gives us a 287 handicap, or a total of 861 free pins. If we assume that 3,000 pins will win it for sure, we would need to roll 2,139 scratch to guarantee victory. That means we need 713 pins per game, or an average of 178.25 per bowler per game.

Allow me to put this into perspective. Over the entire course of the BIA, I have a total of 133 team games in the database. Of these, two are greater than 713. So, we do this about once in every 66 games. We need to do it three times in a row tonight to guarantee victory. Our highest scratch series ever as a team was a 1,978, rolled on January 4 of this year. We need 161 pins on top of that. Given our performance this year, I would estimate our chances of getting 2,130 at 0.0005, or 1 in 2,000. If we lower our goal to 2,100 pins, it goes down to 575 to 1. If we want to place, I can't see it happening without 2,000 pins. The odds of that are about 42 to 1. Now, that's doable.

How do you get 2,000 pins? Well, we need to average a 500 series as a team. While the Ging man has been in that neighborhood lately, I think it's safer to assume that he'll come in around 400. That means John, Joe, and I need 533 a piece. We can do that. If there was ever a night for somebody to break 600 (Johnebob, I'm talking to you), tonight is the night.

Finally, I should note that if we put up a blistering 2,000 series, we will finish with only two pins more than last year. That should tell you two things. 1) We bowled our asses off last year; 2) We have gotten better, a lot better.

6 comments:

  1. Is this the end of your league?

    ReplyDelete
  2. Okay well I agree that it will be tough road ahead for the movements in the league tourny. I will, however, try to put up a 430 giving each of you a 10 pin reduction - but as a rook - I'm not sure if I can do much better. Perhaps, we should just hope that Todd's stache distracts the good teams for a mere 1,900 - then we have a better chance.

    By the way how is stache looking. I may sport one tonight, although thin. Any suggestion on the style: smallwood, Bohn, etc.

    ReplyDelete
  3. No, the league goes until May, but we we reserve one week for this tournament.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Rook, Nice, just go with the stache that works best for your game. Mine looks like that of a 16 year old.

    ReplyDelete

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.