To this point, I haven't posted a puzzler that my usual crowd hasn't been able to solve. The master solvers of my tiny audience are MaddysDaddy, HCLC Doc, and KafkaStoleMyBike. I predict that this will be a challenge for all of you to solve. Prove me wrong!
In the 2005-06 season, Walter Ray Williams, Jr finished with a 100% single pin conversion rate. Impressively, he converted 475 spares in 475 chances. This is an amazing streak by any measure. What is certain is that if he had more chances, eventually he would have missed one. In the following season, he did. So... even though his stats show a 100% conversion rate, in actuality, given enough opportunities to shoot at single pin spares, say 10,000, he would have missed some. So, we can assume that the probability of Walter Ray picking up a single pin spare was not 100%, but it was very close to it. Let's assume that in the 05-06 season, Walter Ray had a 99% chance of converting any given single pin spare. With that assumption:
What is the probability of not converting at least one single pin spare in 475 chances if you have a 99% chance of converting each spare?
[Kafka, you are on the hot seat because you took a class of mine in which I taught you how to solve problems like this one.]
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1 day ago