Friday, March 5, 2010

The Late Season Doldrums

I was thinking about how poorly we have bowled lately. Mostly, this is on the veterans because the Rook has actually been on his game. It occurred to me that a similar thing happened to us last year. My recollection was that we were chugging along, and then sometime late in the season, we just hit a wall. So, I decided to check if that was true.

I looked at a 10 week moving average by date for this year and last. When I did, here is what I found:

It is true that last year we limped to the finish line after peaking early. From early January to mid-March, we essentially leveled off around a 147 team average. Then, we hit our slump. This season, we peaked in mid-January with a team average around 153, and since that time our bowling has fallen off a cliff. So, we do seem to have some kind of late season decline, although the timing of it last year was much later.

There is a silver lining to this cloud. Notice that for every date, our team average is better this year than it was last , but we are threatening to change that very soon. In fact our crappy bowling lately is roughly equivalent to our best bowling from last year, even though it feels much worse.

I also went back the first ever BM Report, and it was nice to read that I was happy with a 450 series. Now, I expect to get 50 pins more than that every night, even though I haven't actually done that in something like eight weeks. All of this is to say that yes, we are in a major slump, but we are getting better as a team, no matter how crappy it seems.

10 comments:

  1. Does regression to the mean apply here? If it does then it's a sobering thought that 8 weeks of steady improvement will inevitably be followed by an extended slump of some kind.

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  2. Interesting point. I don't think so. You are right in that such improvement cannot be expected to last forever, but it usually describes changes over the short term. I think we are just going through a major slump for whatever reason.

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  3. I know how you feel my tormented brother. Your last paragraph is a sign of growth (so the team doctor keeps telling me when I utter similar sentiments about our bowling).

    I bowled a 507 last Tuesday and I was not satisified at all. In my first two seasons of bowling in this same league, I went home REALLY happy with a 150 average.

    We're in bowling puberty, man. Hips are widening, profiles getting lumpier-- no, wait a minute, wrong gender... Our voices are changing, yeah that's it...

    Seriously, though. As we grow, so do our expectations.

    You're going to make it. I just KNOW it.

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  4. Bowling puberty is a terrific analogy. The awkward phase. I have had this feeling lately that very soon my voice will stop cracking, and I'll become a bowling man. Only the future can tell what "soon" means in that sentence.

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  5. Okay so this looks good to me. Last year we had essentially the same curve. By the end of the season we started to come back. By hitting the slump early we will also rebound before the end of the season. Looking at the graph we will only drop one more game before we start increasing our average. We can still do it!

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  6. I hope you're right cause right now, everything is pointing downward.

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  7. I second 努力's emotion.

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  8. And what emotion is that? Something about japanese porn, no doubt.

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  9. I'm not sure, but I like how he put it. He's very eloquent, yet at the same time terse. (Like a fine wine?)

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  10. We need to get 努力 on the team. I didn't know that sort of move was possible with the human body, let alone with that sort of produce. Fascinating.

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